Industry Insights with Jon Semingson

Q2 2025 Market Report

Given all the news over the last week, we couldn’t really have a market report without some talk of tariffs.

We all knew that there would be tariffs coming from this administration.  The question was how big they would be.  I don’t think anyone expected them to be at these levels and this broad.

PV Magazine has a good breakdown of the specifics, but here’s the short version:

Due to existing AD/CVD tariffs on solar modules very little is actually imported straight from China.  Most manufacturing has been occurring in Southeast Asia.  But the most recent AD/CVD tariffs confirmed at the end of the Biden administration have drastically reduced the volume of imported modules from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia.

While the initial reports said the tariffs will not be negotiated, it will be interesting to see over the coming weeks if they all stay at this level, or if changes are made.

The bottom line is that prices for solar and energy storage will be going up.

Who benefits from the latest tariffs?

Domestic manufacturers with a U.S.-based supply chain.

The catch? We still don’t have enough domestic capacity to meet demand.

• First Solar is the obvious winner, though they’re already sold out for the foreseeable future.
• ES Foundry and Suniva are locking in major supply agreements (yes, even Suniva).
• SEG Solar and others with U.S. ownership and operations are well positioned.
• On the racking/tracker side: Terrasmart, Nextracker, Unirac, and Nevados have built strong domestic supply chains.

What else should we be paying attention to?

There is still risk of policy changes as part of the Budget reconciliation process.  SEIA has been doing a lot of ground work to build support across the country to keep the main tax credits in place (including the IRA and 45X) and overall it seems like there is bi-partisan support to continue supporting these.  But, there are risks and you should contact your local Congressional and Senate representatives to encourage their support. 

There seems to be a general consensus that changes will be made to the 45X credits to eliminate the ability for companies based in Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) like China, Iran, Russia and North Korea to receive these credits. 

If this occurs, expect to see companies follow Trina Solar’s lead and sell their US manufacturing operations to other companies to run.

The demand for renewable energy continues to grow.  We are facing headwinds, but we are a resilient industry and will keep pushing forward finding new solutions to keep deploying!